Rams Have to Roll the Dice and Start Jared Goff Week 1 No Matter What
Prior the 2016 NFL draft, the Los Angeles Rams took a huge risk, mortgaging the team’s future by dealing a package of picks (including first-rounders in both 2016 and 2017) to the Tennessee Titans for the rights to the No. 1 overall pick.
With that pick, the Rams selected Cal quarterback Jared Goff, hopeful that the 6’4″, 215-pounder would lead the team in their move back to the left coast.
Well, things apparently aren’t going according to plan, with reports circulating that Goff is “nowhere near being ready to start,” per NFL Network’s Steve Wyche, via Kevin Patra of NFL.com, and that journeyman Case Keenum might open the season under center against the San Francisco 49ers.
Well, the Rams had better get Goff ready. Be prepared to make another gamble. Because unless Goff is injured, he isn’t just the team’s quarterback of the future.
He needs to be their quarterback of the present, too.
As Patra wrote, it was colleague Wyche who raised alarm bells that Goff might not be the lock to start Week 1 so many believed:
Jared Goff is nowhere near being ready to start Week 1. He’s only had offseason workout practices, but he’s swimming in it. … Training camp is vital for him. I spoke to one team official that said they are looking forward to seeing him in pads and preseason games because his ability to improvise are some some of his strengths. But do not be surprised — I know the expectation is for him to start Week 1 — but don’t be shocked if Case Keenum is the starter, because, again, Jared Goff has a long way to go.
This isn’t just beat writer speculation, either. Head coach Jeff Fisher made it clear to the team’s website that nothing is being handed to the youngster this summer, and that Goff still has a ways to go in acclimating to the NFL:
He’s got all the physical tools, makes all the throws and does all that, it’s just learning the system and then applying it to what we would call a fairly sophisticated defensive system. That’s hard. You know, if you just line up and play two coverages then things come along quicker, but that’s not our nature. We may adjust a little bit during camp, but I thought that was the biggest thing as far as he was concerned.
I also said that we’ll start him when he’s ready. I didn’t say that to imply that he was going to start the opener. I said, we have options. He can start anywhere from the opener to whenever, and we haven’t changed our philosophy on that. We’re going to coach him to be successful and we’re not going to put him in with a chance to fail—that’s the most important thing in developing a young quarterback.
Fisher also made it clear that when the Rams open training camp at the end of next month, it won’t be Goff getting the majority of reps with the first team—at least not at the start:
No, we’re going to change it up with the reps. (QB) Case (Keenum) is our starter right now, so Case needs the first-team reps. To give Jared the opportunity—and (QB) Sean (Mannion) for that matter—to run with the first-team, it’s easier to evaluate them. We’ll change things up. Once we get in there and we’ll make some decisions as to who plays when and how much in the preseason.
Now, much of what Fisher said can potentially be chalked up to manufactured competition. It’s hardly unheard of for an NFL team to do so in an effort to motivate a young player—especially this early in the proverbial game. Nothing is promised and all that jazz.
For his part, as reported by Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz of USA Today, Goff said he isn’t taking anything for granted:
I think you play when you’re ready. It’s not up to me, and I’m just trying to come in and play as well as I can in preseason. Whatever decision they make is the right decision.
I’m very honored that they decided to do what they did, and I don’t take it lightly at all. But at the same time I know I’m just one person on the team, and I have to do my part every week. I’m playing quarterback and trying not to make it more than that.
So we have a young player saying all the right things. And Fisher quoting straight from Coachspeak For Dummies. The summer air in Southern California is thick with two things—smog and cliches.
Now that we’ve spent the requisite time in La La Land (both literally and figuratively), here’s the reality of the situation: There are two (and only two) acceptable reasons for Goff to not be the starter on that Monday night against San Francisco.
- Goff is injured.
- The Rams offensive line is in such a sorry state that the team fears Goff will suffer a David Carr-level beating under center that could shatter his confidence for good.
As things stand today, Goff is perfectly healthy. And while the Rams have problems, an offensive line that led the NFL in pass protection last year, per Football Outsiders, is not one of them.
With that, the Rams are fresh out of reasons not to start Goff.
There’s just no upside to it. None. It isn’t like we’re talking about Aaron Rodgers watching as Brett Favre plies his trade. Or even Carson Palmer holding a clipboard for Jon Kitna, who played 16 NFL seasons and was the 2003 NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
We’re talking about Case Keenum, a four-year veteran who has lost twice as many of his 15 career starts as he’s won.
Keenum’s career completion percentage is under 57 percent. He’s averaged less than 190 passing yards a game. And his career passer rating is south of 80. He isn’t a terrible quarterback, and his plus-six touchdown-to-interception ratio demonstrates hat he isn’t overly prone to mistake throws, but he is what he is—an OK backup.
That Nick Foles wasn’t so much as mentioned by Fisher shows how much he figures in the Rams’ plans in 2016. Which is to say he does not.
It isn’t like it’s really going to matter who the quarterback for the Rams is in 2016. In a division with a pair of Super Bowl contenders in the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, the odds of the Rams sniffing the playoffs aren’t good, especially given an offense that’s still woefully light on receiving talent.
Conversely, it doesn’t help the team to take a dive in 2016 either. Whether the Rams finish 6-10 or 10-6 they will pick in the same spot in the first round of the 2017 draft. As in they won’t—the Rams sent the pick to Tennessee as part of the deal to get Goff.
And that’s just it. You don’t lay out the sort of bonanza it cost to bring him to the Ponderosa just to leave Little Joe (Jared, whatever) watching the roundup with a clipboard in his hand. Not without a good reason.
That Goff might struggle early is not a good reason. Not for this Rams team.
Last year, Jameis Winston’s first NFL pass for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was picked off and returned for a touchdown. By the time Winston threw four interceptions against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, hand-wringing over whether the Buccaneers had blown the first overall pick had ratcheted up to Chicken Little levels.
By season’s end, Winston had thrown for 4,000 yards, tossed seven more touchdowns than interceptions and posted both a completion percentage (58.3) and passer rating (84.2) better than Keenum’s career marks.
Will Goff struggle at times in 2016? Assuredly. Might those struggles rattle the young signal-caller a bit? Yes. But if Goff can’t shake those struggles off he isn’t the franchise quarterback the Rams hoped anyway.
Of course, you could argue that as well if Goff can’t beat out Keenun in camp. And the Rams know this as well as anyone. So assuming he’s anything close to the player Lance Zierlein of NFL.com said has “good size, an NFL arm, advanced pocket mobility and the field demeanor of a franchise quarterback,” he’s going to win a competition that will probably be graded on a curve.
The Rams need to find out exactly what they have in Goff. He needs to learn the position of NFL quarterback. The easiest way for both those things to happen is for him to play. For him to learn by doing.
So roll those bones, roll Goff out under the lights on Monday night and hope for the best.
No matter what.
Gary Davenport is an NFL analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.
Read more Los Angeles Rams news on BleacherReport.com
