Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick
Even as the San Francisco 49ers have regressed since their most recent Super Bowl appearance, they’ve remained quick starters; the Niners are 5-0 both straight up and against the spread over their last five season openers.
This year San Francisco opens with a renewal of a great West Coast football rivalry when it hosts the Rams of Los Angeles on Monday night at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
Point spread: Rams opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.0-19.4 49ers (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Rams can cover the spread
Los Angeles is coming off a 7-9 season that had the potential to be better. The Rams lost four games by six points or fewer, two of those in overtime, and three times while holding opponents to 19 points or fewer. They also beat Seattle twice and Arizona once, and they did all this while getting some of the worst quarterback play in the league.
With help from rookie Todd Gurley, who ran for 1,100 yards in basically 12 games, the Rams also outrushed opponents by eight yards per game, a figure more indicative of a winning squad rather than one that finished two games under .500.
This offseason, as you might have heard, the Rams moved back to California, which could help reinfuse some enthusiasm into this franchise. Los Angeles made more big news when it traded up to draft Cal quarterback Jared Goff with the first overall pick. But he won’t start this week; instead, they’ll go with Case Keenum, who, while he’s just 5-10 as an NFL starter, is 5-2 over his last seven starts and owns a career TD/INT ratio of 15-9.
Why the 49ers can cover the spread
San Francisco is trying to bounce back after falling to 5-11 a year ago. The Niners are also trying to reinvigorate themselves, with help from new head coach Chip Kelly, who got immediate results in his first NFL coaching stop by leading Philadelphia to 10 wins and a division title in his first season there.
The Niners have suffered some severe personnel depletions over the last couple of years but ended up with 11 picks in this year’s draft, including a pair of first-rounders, both of which they used on guys in the trenches. And after ranking 29th in total defense last year, they used four of their first five picks on that side of the ball.
Blaine Gabbert, the former first-round pick, gets the nod as the starter at quarterback. Last year, in half a season, Gabbert completed 63 percent of his passes while compiling a 10/7 TD/INT ratio. San Francisco went 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS in Gabbert’s eight starts.
Smart pick
Regardless of the quarterback situations with both teams, Los Angeles owns edges in the running games and on defense. Also, San Francisco will be working through a learning curve with the new coach and his new systems. Add it up and it’s good enough for a recommendation on the Rams in this spot.
Betting trends
The total has gone under in the Rams’ last three games against the 49ers.
The Rams are 1-6-1 SU in their last eight games on the road against the 49ers.
The 49ers are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games in Week 1.
All NFL betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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