Is Todd Gurley Ready to Become the NFL’s Best Running Back?
At the very least, Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley thinks he’s in line to be the most productive back in the NFL in 2016.
That’s certainly what the 21-year-old was suggesting when he proclaimed recently on NFL Network (via Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith) that he should be the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts this summer. Gurley went on to state that if he isn’t chosen first, Antonio Brown and Cam Newton would appear to be the only candidates worthy of being selected in front of him.
Antonio Brown and Cam Newton are not running backs.
Adrian Peterson is a running back. He led the league in rushing with 1,485 yards last season. Doug Martin is also a back. He finished second with 1,402. Gurley had 1,106.
Peterson, running back Devonta Freeman and another back named Jeremy Hill all scored 11 or more touchdowns last season. Gurley scored 10.
Small sample size, but running back Le’Veon Bell averaged 4.9 yards per attempt, while fellow backs Thomas Rawls and Ryan Mathews (also with small sample sizes while still qualifying) averaged 5.6 and 5.0, respectively. Gurley averaged 4.8.
But the 2015 No. 10 overall pick out of Georgia believes he’ll put up bigger numbers than Peterson, than Freeman, than Hill, Bell, Rawls, Mathews. And he’s not crazy, because there’s a reason he was a top-10 selection during a stretch in which running backs have received little love from front offices.
Is Gurley ready to become the NFL’s most productive back in his second season? It’s entirely possible. Let’s break it down.
Trajectory matters
As I mentioned, Gurley is only 21. On one hand, that could indicate he’ll need some more time to become polished. But on the other hand, it means he’s as fresh as possible entering his first full season at a position that requires maximum freshness out of its stars.
He has just 12 NFL starts under his belt, but he ran for 125-plus yards in five of those starts. Sure, he had some rough outings as a rookie (he was limited to fewer than 50 rushing yards four times in a six-week stretch after a hot start), but he also became only the seventh rookie back in NFL history to rush for 125-plus yards on five occasions.
Only two other backs—Peterson and DeAngelo Williams of the Pittsburgh Steelers—hit that mark more than twice.
He also led the league with seven 30-yard runs despite the fact eight backs—and each of the four other backs who had at least four such runs—received more carries.
So yes, the arrow is pointed in the right direction. And although he’ll be just 22 years old, there are precedents in his corner. A 22-year-old Edgerrin James rushed for a league-high 1,709 yards with the Indianapolis Colts in 2000, while Ottis Anderson, Clinton Portis, Emmitt Smith and Jim Brown all put up 1,500-yard seasons at that age. Save for Anderson, all of those guys were also sophomores.
Support matters
Gurley put up stellar numbers last season despite the fact Rams quarterbacks Nick Foles and Case Keenum combined for a passer rating of 74.1, which left St. Louis ranked dead last in the NFL in terms of team passer rating.
Offensive tackle Greg Robinson was graded by Pro Football Focus as the third-worst regular left tackle in the NFL, while interior offensive linemen Tim Barnes and Jamon Brown also received terrible grades. Only one receiver went over 500 yards, and Gurley was the only offensive player to make the Pro Bowl.
This year, things have at least changed slightly. In comes No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff to give the Rams a boost under center. That alone should help take pressure off Gurley, as should the return of injured guard Rodger Saffold.
If recent top picks Robinson and Tavon Austin can also start to live up to expectations, opposing defenses might have to consider focusing at least minimally on a Rams passing game that was hardly a factor in 2015.
That could do wonders for Gurley, who faced far too many loaded boxes last season.
Health matters
There’s a reason Gurley started just 12 games last season. He missed the first two weeks and was limited in Week 3 due to the major knee injury he suffered late in his final year at Georgia. And although he still managed to burst onto the scene with an absurd 566 rushing yards in his first four starts, the reality is Gurley probably wasn’t 100 percent during that stretch.
In fact, his own head coach admitted as much.
“You look around the league, it takes more than just a year to come back [from a torn ACL],” Jeff Fisher said not long after Gurley rushed for a season-high 159 yards last October, per R.B. Fallstrom of the Associated Press (via FoxSports.com). “Todd’s a year out, that’s why I say he’s not 100 percent. He’s going to continue to get better.”
Gurley also missed the Rams’ finale with a toe injury. And while there’s no guarantee he’ll play all 16 games in 2016, there’s at least a much better chance of that happening since he’s healthy as we speak. If we take the stats from his 12 starts in 2015 and spread them out over a 16-game sample, we get 1,462 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns.
For what it’s worth, those numbers would have given him more fantasy points than any other running back in the NFL. A year later, he’s healthier, he has more support and he has likely improved. So don’t be surprised if Gurley performs like a top fantasy pick in 2016, because he just might be on the verge of becoming the best back in the game.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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